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Thread: Climate Change (Global Warming)

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    ToneOholic! big_teee's Avatar
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    Climate Change (Global Warming)

    The town near here, Hot Springs National Park, Arkansas, Had the warmest Christmas on record.
    It was right at 70F on 12-25-2016.
    Normal weather would be 40s, or less.
    T
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    Senior Member Enzo's Avatar
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    Remember it is summer in Argentina now. Global warming is concerned with the overall temperature being a degree or two higher. Local weather is just weather. We just had record lows up here last week.


    But i will say I'd take 70 over dreary 40 for Xmas any time.
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    ToneOholic! big_teee's Avatar
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    I prefer the 40-50s this time of year.
    70 here was sweaty and humid.
    It had been colder, and when it gets warm it sweats and condensates.
    I had wet covered porches for christmas.
    I swept them, blew them off with the leaf blower, and turned the ceiling fans on to dry them off.
    It made them worse.
    Once the cool dry air came back they were bone dry again.

    On it being warmer, it is much warmer here year around now.
    We hardly ever wear a coat.
    We used to have real winters here.
    Summers are hotter, with more dry weather.
    It is all documented.

    All weather and politics are local.

    T
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    Supporting Member The Dude's Avatar
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    I get the impression you could be standing atop Mount Elbert watching sharks swim by and, as long as it's cold there, you'd still deny global warming.
    “Yeah, well, you know, that’s just, like, your opinion, man.”

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    Senior Member Enzo's Avatar
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    Bill, you still don't get it, weather isn't global climate. If a rain cloud passes over Tucson, that doesn't mean a southwestern drought is over.

    I don;t know what your chart is supposed to mean other than the high temp records are not for the last couple years. is that all? That has little or nothing to do with global warming. When the whole earth gets warmer, it can shift weather patterns, and some areas will get colder than they had been. If it increases cloud cover in an area, the average temps will go down, even though the extra coudiness was caused by overall warming in larger areas.

    If the Greenland ice caps melts off, it would dump huge amounts if fresh water into the North Altlantic, and that would severely alter the Gulf Stream. And a diversion of the Gulf Stream would remove the main source of heat for Europe. The weather in Europe would get colder, yes, because of global warming. Global warming refers to the OVERALL average temperature of the earth, not any one place.

    It matters a lot that the whole world goes up one little degree, regardless of what the temperature does in Little Rock.
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    The analogy I like to use is that global climate is like your skin. It is all connected, and pushing it in or bunching it up in one place changes whatever is immediately connected to it, and also has implications for what is peripherally connected to it. As the polar ice cap melts, water gets "liberated" from the ice. That both raises sea levels, but also makes more water available for precipitation i other places.

    So the "weather" in terms of temperature in many parts of the US don't have to change all that much to be impacted by floods arising from all that (former) polar moisture.

    The average changes in temperature are not felt directly the world over. But those changes at the poles initiate many of the catastrophic weather changes, that have increased in both frequency and ferocity, of late.

    It is the fact that the demonstrable warming at the poles results in paradoxical weather in other places (floods, droughts, winter when it ought not to be, etc.) that has shifted the terminology from "global warming" to "climate change". Not to misdirect anyone or obfuscate, but to clarify what to expect.
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    Supporting Member Chuck H's Avatar
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    Further... Since global warming is analogous to rising Co2 levels and increased precipitation everything starts looking really green and lush. Hey! This is great! Nope. In fact it's been figured that most of the oil we're pumping out of the ground now is the result of an enormous oceanic algae bloom that literally choked the life out of everything else and then died off as quickly as it manifested leaving what amounts to a giant compost heap in the seas. Cool! Can we play?
    Last edited by Chuck H; 01-18-2017 at 08:55 PM.
    "I've heard magic defined as "a technology you don't understand". By that aphorism, the folks in this forum are practicing wizards, able to summon AND control the lightning demon, and make charms to allow others to use the demon in certain ways." R.G.

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    ToneOholic! big_teee's Avatar
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    2016 NOAA report, Hottest year on record!

    Year-to-date (January–November)
    January-November Blended Land and Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in degrees Celsius
    January–November 2016 Blended Land and Sea Surface
    Temperature Anomalies in degrees Celsius
    January-November Blended Land and Sea Surface Temperature Percentiles
    January–November 2016 Blended Land and Sea Surface
    Temperature Percentiles

    With only one month left in the year, the 2016 year-to-date global temperature (January–November) was the highest on record for this period, at 0.94°C (1.69°F) above the 20th century average of 14.0°C (57.2°F). This value exceeded the previous record set in 2015 by 0.07°C (0.13°F). Unless the December global temperature is 0.25°C (0.41°F) or less above the 20th century monthly average, 2016 will at least tie 2015 as the warmest year in the 137-year record. The last month for which the departure from average was that low was November 2000.

    Much-warmer-than-average conditions engulfed the vast majority of the world's land surfaces, resulting in a record warm January–November period, at 1.43°C (2.57°F) above the 20th century average, besting the previous record set in 2015 by 0.16°C (0.29°F). Record warmth for the year-to-date was present across Alaska, much of western Canada, parts of the northern and eastern United States, much of Central America and northern South America, various regions across Africa, parts of northern and southern Asia, much of southeast Asia island nations, and parts of Australia, especially along the northern and eastern coasts. According to NCEI's Global Regional analysis, all six continents had at least a top four warm January–November period, with North America experiencing its highest January–November average temperature since continental records began in 1910.

    The average global sea surface temperature for the year-to-date was the highest in the 137-year record, at 0.76°C (1.37°F) above average, surpassing the previous record set in 2015 by 0.03°C (0.05°F). Record high average sea surface temperatures for the January–November period were present across the northern Pacific waters near Alaska, the Bering Sea, parts of the southern and western Pacific, a long swath of the western Atlantic stretching to the Gulf of Mexico, parts of the southern and eastern Indian Ocean extending across the waters of the southeastern Asia island nations and Oceania. The only ocean area with record cold temperatures was east of the Drake Passage near the Antarctic Peninsula.
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    I thought Bill was supporting global warming by showing that all the record high temps have been since the 50's.
    And since global warming predicts more extreme weather events, this data also shows that most of the extreme highs and lows have been since the 50's.
    Good job Bill!
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    ToneOholic! big_teee's Avatar
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    Technicians Run the World, but Bankers, Lawyers, and Accountants, Take All The Credit!
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    Old Timer Leo_Gnardo's Avatar
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    Scientists, what do they know. There's always that level of "uncertainty", iow "we don't know nothin."

    And CNN, are you kidding???, evvabody knows they manufacture fake news. What next, New York Times? The communist newspaper?

    I'll believe it when it's reported by Fat Beard, oops I mean Breitbart.

    When coconut palms start flourishing in upstate NY, that'll make me happy. Don't forget the hula girls, every day of the year. When the surf is gently lapping at my windows, and I can swim to the supermarket, can't wait for it. Won't be long now.

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    Supporting Member The Dude's Avatar
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    The problem with your logic is that, a few short years after your tropical paradise comes to fruition, a good chunk of NY will be ocean. You need to start buying up property further inland. It will eventually be beach front property.
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    Old Timer Leo_Gnardo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Dude View Post
    The problem with your logic is that, a few short years after your tropical paradise comes to fruition, a good chunk of NY will be ocean. You need to start buying up property further inland. It will eventually be beach front property.
    According to worst case predictions, I'm already right at the sweet spot. Should invest in a beach umbarella soon. Right after the snowmen melt.
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    Supporting Member The Dude's Avatar
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    Gitcha some of those small umbrellas for your drinks, too. Global warming and all- those ice cubes will melt quick without one.
    “Yeah, well, you know, that’s just, like, your opinion, man.”

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    Supporting Member Chuck H's Avatar
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    Don't forget the SPF-100
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    "I've heard magic defined as "a technology you don't understand". By that aphorism, the folks in this forum are practicing wizards, able to summon AND control the lightning demon, and make charms to allow others to use the demon in certain ways." R.G.

    "...less ear-friendly but handy for jazz." Leo_Gnardo

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    Last edited by Bill Moore; 01-19-2017 at 03:30 PM.

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    g1 likes this.
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    Supporting Member Chuck H's Avatar
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    One flyer in the group means the climate isn't changing!?! Please. What sort of reasonable, thinking person is that supposed to fool?

    Oh, uh... Sorry Bill.
    "I've heard magic defined as "a technology you don't understand". By that aphorism, the folks in this forum are practicing wizards, able to summon AND control the lightning demon, and make charms to allow others to use the demon in certain ways." R.G.

    "...less ear-friendly but handy for jazz." Leo_Gnardo

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    Senior Member Enzo's Avatar
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    OK Bill, we'll use your chart. Look at the red line, the running 13 year average. Note how it slopes UP? One anomalous spike around 1999. And they decide THAT peak negates the whole slope?
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    Supporting Member Jazz P Bass's Avatar
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    What a lot of people do not recognize is the Sun's affect on climate.

    There is an 11 year (more or less) cycle of sunspots that the Sun goes through.
    https://www.britannica.com/science/g...sols#ref979371

    Then there are oddities where the Sun is blank of sunspots.
    https://www.britannica.com/topic/Maunder-minimum

    That is when it gets really cold on Earth.

    All through the history of our cozy planet, the Sun has reined supreme when it came to climate change.
    CO2 levels went up & down at a steady rhythm that followed the Sun's sunspot cycles.

    Along comes Homo US and the tables shifted to CO2 having the greatest control around the turn of the century.
    And as if to help us out, the Sun has been really, really quiet as far as sunspots go.
    Thank you Sol.
    https://www.britannica.com/topic/Maunder-minimum
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    The black line is the mean average temperature. The red from a -.3 deg below to a +.2 deg. ONE Degree total! The red line is a running 13 month average, next year when there's more data, you'll see the line going down, just like it did after the 1998 El Nino cycle.
    Remember the "hottest year ever" claim is hundredths of a degree, less than measurable! The folks at NOAA, and NASA are going to have to prove their work from now on, (and it will be peer reviewed by others who are interested in science, not politics)!
    The sun is the driver of our climate! (Imagine that)!
    The Sun-Climate Connection: Over 100 Scientific Papers From 2016 Link Solar Forcing To Climate Change

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    Then there is the idea that methane gases are 20% or so more problematic than other greenhouse gases. So then comes along the Fartpack!!
    When the going gets weird... The weird turn pro!

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    Old Timer Leo_Gnardo's Avatar
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    pirates_cause_global_warming.jpg

    Ah but we DO have pirates! Thanx hevvins for Somalian pirates, who knew they were here to save the planet from a hideous fate. Somebody tell Bright Fart, so they can spread the good news.
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    Senior Member Enzo's Avatar
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    Bill, it IS measurable, in fact they measure it all the time. And as we have told you over and over, ONE whole degree in WORLD average temperature is a BIG DEAL. Global warming is not about sweltering summers and snowless ski lodges. A tenth of a degree is less than FEELABLE by a human standing somewhere. But it is quite measurable, and it can result in loss of sea ice and shifting weather patterns.

    yes, the red line will go down some more in all likelihood, before it turns back upward, as it does periodically on the chart. What does not go down is the overall trend of the red line. If nothing else, note that before the 1998 peak MOST of the red line was below the set reference average, while most after that peak was above the black line.

    So much denier argument is based on some year in the past being warmer than some more recent years. That is irrelevant. There will always be warmer and cooler years. No science expects the temperature to be a smooth upward line. Climatologists never claim that, so agruing as if they did is disingenuous.

    SO whether you accept that the planet is warming or not, and whether you accept that human activity impacts it, your chart is not evidence against it, in fact, the trend on your chart supports global warming.

    And the 100 papers thing? I expect many more papers about the influence of solar energy on our climate. No one in the scientific community has ever doubted that solar energy has a major impact. No one in science has said that humans are 100% responsible for climate change either. So listing a bunch of papers that say solar energy affects climate is trivial. Next we will see 100s of papers explaining that tube current affects circuits. And then perhaps someone will claim gravity causes apples to fall from trees instead of going up. But then gravity is "just a theory".

    One can debate how much affect humans have on climate, maybe a little, maybe a lot. No one claims we are the sum total of it.
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    Supporting Member Chuck H's Avatar
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    I'm pretty sure Jazz was just demonstrating that there is actually a natural phenomenon that is somewhat countering the affect humans have had on the climate and not at all suggesting that humans aren't responsible for the current warming trend. In fact he acknowledged that CO2 levels are rising artificially because of humans and that even though that has previously followed old Sol it doesn't have to. Pretty sure he's on the right side of this debate.
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    "I've heard magic defined as "a technology you don't understand". By that aphorism, the folks in this forum are practicing wizards, able to summon AND control the lightning demon, and make charms to allow others to use the demon in certain ways." R.G.

    "...less ear-friendly but handy for jazz." Leo_Gnardo

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    Supporting Member Jazz P Bass's Avatar
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    It is the night time temperatures that are going up.

    That's when old CO2 does it's harm..

    It prevents the heat that is reradiated at night from escaping..

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    Supporting Member Chuck H's Avatar
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    You know, I'm glad Enzo took the time to point out the facts. One degree being EXTREMELY significant, the fact there's a trend that is not undone by isolated weather events, etc. I was going to post all that and then decided not to because...

    There's only one person in the room (thread) that isn't in agreement and he absolutely will not recognize any validity in anything contrary to his beliefs. Maybe he even knows that they are only beliefs but chooses to turn a blind eye. I don't know. I've never been a fan of faith or beliefs so I don't understand the mechanism. What I do know is that it almost never happens that someone in a debate says "You know.?. Your right! You've changed my mind." So I figure there's no gratification for myself or enlightenment for Bill regardless of whether I'm right or he's wrong.
    The Dude and eschertron like this.
    "I've heard magic defined as "a technology you don't understand". By that aphorism, the folks in this forum are practicing wizards, able to summon AND control the lightning demon, and make charms to allow others to use the demon in certain ways." R.G.

    "...less ear-friendly but handy for jazz." Leo_Gnardo

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    Supporting Member The Dude's Avatar
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    ............ and, I'll say it again. The cause of global warming is irrelevant!!!!!! The question is whether we can reduce the effects by curbing emissions. I frankly don't care if it's caused by the sun, humans, circus clowns, whatever. It makes no difference! If we humans can do something to help fix the problem, why wouldn't we?

    Aside from that, IMO, because of the deniers, we are missing out on opportunities for new jobs, new product to sell, innovation, and much more. This could be the next "industrial revolution". But nope, let's sit around and argue about it instead.

    It's sort of like saying I'm not going to fix amps any more because I'm not the one who broke them.
    Last edited by The Dude; 01-19-2017 at 11:04 PM.
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    Old Timer Leo_Gnardo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Dude View Post
    because of the deniers, we are missing out on opportunities for new jobs, new product to sell, innovation, and much more.
    B.b.b..b.but Dude! Under all those melting ice caps n glaciers, theres' going to be found lots more oil and gas and coal. Plenty of jobs there, drill baby drill and all that. Clean coal at that - promised by both Trump AND Obama. They can wash it with all the water made by melting the ice I s'pose. Bring back the 60's gas guzzlers, and a Hummer for everybody, ME FIRST! Zoom zoom zooooooommmmmm.......
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    Supporting Member The Dude's Avatar
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    The oil's already been found. They just need to get it out of the ground. IMO, that's why Putin elected Chump (yes, I said that). He can get his sanctions lifted and Chump, Putin, and their buddy Rex Tillerson can get to drillin'.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...an-oil-company
    “Yeah, well, you know, that’s just, like, your opinion, man.”

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    Senior Member Enzo's Avatar
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    It makes no difference! If we humans can do something to help fix the problem, why wouldn't we?
    Exactly. people sometimes pount out that we have always cycled between warm and ice ages. As if that excuses us. But I have to wonder, if the glaciers start coming down the Hudson River, would New Yorkers just sit by and watch? As climate patterns shift, large areas of Canada would become more farmable but at the same time large portions of the USA, in particular west of the Mississippi, would become desert. Would we just wave bye-bye to our wheat and cattle industries? If the world was headed towards being a gigantic hot house in 50,000 years, why would we want to push it up to next year? We owe it to our children to do whatever we can to lessen our impact.
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  33. #33
    Old Timer Leo_Gnardo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Dude View Post
    The oil's already been found. They just need to get it out of the ground. IMO, that's why Putin elected Chump (yes, I said that). He can get his sanctions lifted and Chump, Putin, and their buddy Rex Tillerson can get to drillin'.
    Kool! I expect in the next few months we'll start Gulf War III so our military-petroleum-congressional complex can grab that Iraqi oil that was left behind when US troops were removed more or less on schedule last time around. Hot dog, we'll have dollar-a-gallon gasoline again, or cheaper, like it's s'posed to be. When they gonna put the lead back in it? And stop makin' us buy those dam' cadillac converters and other expensive foofy envirametal stuff? My engine's knockin' and valves sufferin'.

    Did anyone hear our upcoming Secretary of Energy Rick Perry speak today? "Nuke-u-lar" is back! So good to hear the familiar dispronunskiation. I expect he'll be as much fun on the dais as he was on the couch.
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    ToneOholic! big_teee's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Leo_Gnardo View Post
    Kool! I expect in the next few months we'll start Gulf War III so our military-petroleum-congressional complex can grab that Iraqi oil that was left behind when US troops were removed more or less on schedule last time around. Hot dog, we'll have dollar-a-gallon gasoline again, or cheaper, like it's s'posed to be. When they gonna put the lead back in it? And stop makin' us buy those dam' cadillac converters and other expensive foofy envirametal stuff? My engine's knockin' and valves sufferin'.

    Did anyone hear our upcoming Secretary of Energy Rick Perry speak today? "Nuke-u-lar" is back! So good to hear the familiar dispronunskiation. I expect he'll be as much fun on the dais as he was on the couch.
    We got to get rid of those pesky windmills.
    All of that renewable stuff has got to go too.
    Bring back the incandescent light bulb.
    why use 3 -5 watt LED bulbs in a fixture, when you can use 3-100 watt bulbs.
    And, like LEO said, we got to burn more of that dirty CLEAN Coal.
    Drill Baby Drill, Burn Baby Burn!
    T
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  35. #35
    Old Timer Leo_Gnardo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by big_teee View Post
    And, like LEO said, we got to burn more of that dirty CLEAN Coal.
    Gonna print up some baseball hats, "MAKE PITTSBURGH BLACK AGAIN". Coal, m'boy, C.O.A.L.

    Gawd, I miss hearing that gravelly cough everybody had in the good ol' days. Speaking of which, bring back Big Tobacco too. Cancel all those foofoo laws, let everybody smoke all they want, wherever they want. Braaaack-ack-ack-ack ko-axx ko-axxxxx, p-tooooey. Light up your Luckies!

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